UK population to hit 70 million in 20 years

Immigration must be brought down close to the level of emigration
to preserve our environment and quality of life.

• The red area of this graph shows what Government statisticians believe to be the most likely outcome for the population of the UK: the population will grow from 61 million today to 70 million in 2028.
• This forecast assumes a net migration (the number of immigrants minus the number of emigrants) of 190,000 a year over the period. Last year net migration was 237,000. Consequently, the population is well on track to hit 70 million.
• Virtually all population growth will be in England.
• 70 per cent of the increase – nearly seven million people – will be due to immigration. This is equivalent to seven cities the size of Birmingham.
• To stay below 70 million, net migration must be reduced to about 60,000 a year, or by 75%, and held at that level. Even that would be adding the population of Sweden to that of England.
• The Government’s new Points Based System has no limits. Had it been in operation last year it would have cut the number of immigrants by only 12,000 or 6%.
• We need a radical change of direction – a policy that explicitly sets out to limit the growth in population, and brings immigration back into balance with emigration. This would stabilise the population at about 65 million.

Immigration and the recession

The graph below demonstrates that the last three recessions resulted in a temporary decline in immigration, followed by a strong rise in immigration as the economy recovered.

• Some migration is a natural part of an open economy. To remain competitive, we need to continue to attract first class, skilled talent.
• But with unemployment rising towards 3 million, it makes no sense to admit non-EU migrants in large numbers. Last year, 130,000 were granted work permits.
• Each skilled migrant granted a work permit reduces the probability of a British worker being trained, or the chances for the unemployed to find work.

Balanced Migration – what would be needed?

• First, immigration rules for non-EU economic migrants should be tightened, so that British workers have the first chance to apply for British jobs.
• Second, we should break the link between giving people work permits and the right to settle here permanently. The latter should be capped, so that the population can be controlled while our economy can remain competitive.
• Third, other aspects of immigration policy should be built around the clear objective of bringing the level of immigration down to that of emigration.

This is perfectly feasible, but it will require courage and determination from our political leaders.

If you want to find out more about Balanced Migration, please visit www.balancedmigration.com

Published by Migrationwatch UK, Centrepoint, Chapel Square, Deddington, OX15 0SG at the request of the Cross Party Group on Balanced Migration